A viewpoint:

The current crisis therefore also offers the opportunity to bury a failing system and replace it with a new, more humane one. This opportunity must be seized now, before it is too late and collapsing capitalism once again destroys everything in a major war.

 

For more than two years, all EU states have been pursuing a disastrous course. Guided by the idea of ​​being able to bring Russia to its knees and ruin it in order to break up the Russian state and divide it into a series of smaller individual states, the EU and with it all its member states are running towards their own destruction. The sanctions packages have not weakened Russia, but have pushed the European states into recession, as has the disconnection from Russian gas supplies. At the same time, the EU is becoming more and more involved in the war. While they initially supplied Ukraine with helmets and humanitarian aid, their support for the war has increased to include heavy weapons such as tanks and medium-range missiles.

In the last few weeks alone, the conflict has escalated at an alarming rate. While the West, led by the USA, had initially forbidden Kiev from attacking Russian heartland with the weapons it had supplied, these bans were dropped one after the other, and the German government also gave the green light for attacks deep in the Russian hinterland. Ukraine had already used Western weapons before, for example to bomb Belgorod repeatedly, and without any military benefit. Civilians on Russian soil keep dying in the process. But the West’s official permission to continue doing this on an even larger scale is also a diplomatic and political escalation. Just a few days after the German government’s official statements allowing Kiev to use German weapons, Kiev launched the most massive attack on the Crimean bridge that Russia has ever reported. Against the backdrop of the Taurus leaks, the conversation in which several high-ranking German military officials discussed how the Crimean bridge could be destroyed with German Taurus missiles, this does not cast a good light on Germany and could provoke Russian countermeasures against Germany.

In Russia, it was made clear that an attack with Western weapons on Russian soil would be considered an act of war and would also result in corresponding reactions from the Western aggressors. In addition, Kiev has recently attacked some facilities of the Russian nuclear early warning systems. These are part of the Russian missile defense shield and are used to detect Western nuclear missiles in good time. The Russian nuclear doctrine describes an attack on this system as a reason for the use of nuclear weapons. It is the West that is behind these attacks and the Russian government is also aware of this. Countermeasures would therefore not necessarily be limited to the territory of Ukraine, but could affect the whole of Europe.

This is all the more true as European states in particular are talking more and more openly about the possibility of sending their own soldiers to Ukraine. The Ukrainian army is facing total collapse and can only be maintained with massive mobilization campaigns, which, however, produce a poorly trained and poorly motivated force that is anything but up to war. Western soldiers are supposed to prevent the collapse of Ukraine. The war in Ukraine, which the West is waging against Russia, is escalating at a breathtaking pace. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently stated that he expects a further escalation this summer. Serbian Prime Minister Alexandar Vucic also expressed concern about the war spreading to the whole of Europe, which he firmly expects within the next four months.

This escalation could ultimately mean that Europe enters into a direct confrontation with Russia. While the West has so far been content with a proxy war designed to weaken Russia, it has become clear that this strategy does not work. In order to ensure that the incredible investments in Ukraine have not been in vain, the West has no choice but to enter the war directly. It is a war of sheer desperation, to cover up its own failures and to avoid having to take responsibility towards the local population for the massive waste of taxpayers’ money, the destruction of the domestic economy and diplomatic isolation from the rest of the world.

However, it is also to be expected that the USA will stay out of this war. A few weeks ago, NATO issued a declaration that it would not intervene in Ukraine. However, this is solely to avoid having to trigger the obligation to provide assistance under Article 5 of the NATO Treaty. Of course, every individual member state has the free choice to get involved in a war, and behind the scenes there will be agreements with Washington, and, if you look at the German Chancellor’s zigzag course, there will also be pressure from the USA for Europe to become more involved in this war. Only the USA should not be drawn into this conflict via NATO. For Washington, it remains a proxy conflict, only now the whole EU should be involved in it.

It is also the perfect deal for the USA and US capital. Ukraine is already completely divided up among Western corporations. Blackrock, Vanguard and State Street profit from the rearmament and destruction, privatize the destroyed country and then profit from the reconstruction. This Ukrainian model can also be applied to the rest of the EU once the war has reduced it to rubble. It is a pure illusion that the EU can win this war against Russia. A large proportion of the weapons have already been scrapped in Ukraine, and it is difficult to keep up with ammunition deliveries because production capacity is not sufficient to even supply Ukraine. Heavy weapons are now in short supply in the EU, and there are hardly enough soldiers to sustain a war for long. Conscription will not remedy this situation in the short term and will only have the effect of wasting more poorly trained human material on the front lines, as those drafted have never seen a war up close. Training in NATO combat tactics, as Ukrainian soldiers repeatedly report, is completely useless for the war in Ukraine anyway.

On the Russian side, on the other hand, there is now a well-trained, war-experienced force fighting. Russian soldiers have learned to adapt quickly to constantly changing conditions, and Russia’s military apparatus has also eliminated many of its weaknesses and, through its real involvement in a real war, has matured into a more efficient system than its European counterparts. They have not fought a real war for decades, but have simply bombed technically and materially inferior states on a large scale without encountering any real resistance. The EU cannot win this war, and it would be utter madness to try to defeat Russia. Because this country, unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and all the other states that the West has destroyed in recent decades, has nuclear weapons and will use them in the event of a real threat.

Europe is therefore heading towards the state of a radioactive desert. This will of course also affect Germany. There are several large, important US military bases here. Ramstein and Büchel will be among the first targets of Russian military strikes against Germany, but not so much Berlin, where there is nothing important, not even military decision-making centers. Despite all these obvious facts, German politicians such as Marie Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who recently called for 900,000 reservists to be reactivated, continue to escalate. If European states continue on this course, they are heading for a bleak future.

But even if the big war and the radioactive fallout do not happen, Europe’s future is anything but rosy. The idiotic sanctions policy has already pushed the EU into a deep recession, Germany is gradually being deindustrialized, and with it the entire economic model of the country, which was previously celebrated as the world export champion, is being demolished. The situation is similar for other EU countries. In addition, countries like France are also losing their colonies in Africa, from which they until recently drew their cheap energy resources, such as uranium. With the loss of this source of raw materials, the French energy supply is on the brink of complete collapse, and with it the German one, which has been converted to so-called renewable and therefore highly unreliable energy due to ideological politics. The deficits have so far been offset by cheap electricity from abroad. This option is gradually disappearing.

Added to this is the decline of the dollar as the world’s leading currency. The entire western financial system is tied to the dollar, whose value is only maintained through this function. However, the USA is in debt to the tune of more than 34 trillion dollars.  This debt entails enormous interest obligations, which are paid off by the government simply taking on more debt. The payment obligations on interest alone exceeded the one trillion dollar mark this year.  This means that the USA spends more money on interest on its national debt than on its entire military apparatus, at least if one only takes official military spending as a comparison.

This system has so far only been able to be maintained due to the US hegemonic position, and has also been defended and supported by ongoing wars that kept the dollar rolling and stopped potential attempts to decouple, such as those initiated by Saddam Hussein or Muamar Al Gaddafi. The BRICS states, however, have been in the process of decoupled from the dollar for some time. They are increasingly using the ruble, the yuan or the rupee to exchange goods, and are working on a common currency, partly backed by gold, that would make the dollar completely superfluous. More and more countries are also joining the BRICS alliance, which is removing more and more countries from the Western sphere of influence. This is causing the dollar system to collapse, and with it ultimately the Western financial system, the Western economies and ultimately the states. This is one of the reasons why the West is now pushing the escalation in Ukraine so hard. The battle for global hegemony is entering a decisive phase, and things are looking bad for the USA and therefore for the West.

The collapse of the dollar will also cause further chaos in Europe and lead the already ailing economies to collapse completely. This would lead to widespread unemployment and poverty, hunger, disease and death. This leads to unrest and uprisings, a spread of organized crime and thus also violence. In addition, there is ethnic segregation in many European countries, which has already led to a number of parallel societies, which in turn promotes aggression and alienation, and thus hatred and violence, on both sides. Racism and violence against foreigners will explode, as will the reactions of those affected. Europe will turn into a series of failed states in which the distribution of wealth will become even more unequal than it is today. A few wealthy people will be faced with an impoverished and destitute mass. In the worst case, these few wealthy people will acquire their own private armies to protect themselves from the impoverished masses and to compete against each other for influence and wealth.

Since Europe is poor in raw materials and, in the future, in manufacturing, the business model of these rich will expand to include criminal activities of all kinds, such as the smuggling of goods, drugs and perhaps even people. Private armies will become a magnet for the impoverished masses, as they promise at least a small income, and criminal gangs will form that will exert ever greater influence. Europe has entered a process that political scientists Ulrike Guerot and Hauke ​​Ritz call Latin Americanization.

This term, they say, describes the slide from an efficient welfare state to a much lower level. This is accompanied by a loss of prosperity and a decline in state control. Social benefits are reduced to a minimum or abolished altogether, and corruption, crime and violence increase. Latin American states have experienced this process over the past century, often through US interventions that have deposed elected presidents, fomented protests, uprisings and violence, and installed dictators. The starting point is always an ever-increasing loss of sovereignty of states and dependence on external, state actors, namely the USA and its sprawling military and intelligence apparatus. This loss of sovereignty has long since occurred in Europe, especially in Germany. Just think of the many US military bases on the territory of the Federal Republic, or the Chancellor’s lack of opposition to Biden’s announcement that he wanted to end Nord Stream, which ultimately happened without any political consequences. The USA can declare war on Germany without Germany resisting. It is also striking that Scholz gave up his initial refusal to allow Ukraine to use German weapons against Russian heartland after a trip to Washington, and then declared the opposite. Germany’s loss of sovereignty is obvious, and with it the first step towards Latin Americanization has already taken place.

The loss of prosperity is also already obvious. More and more corporations and companies are moving away or closing their doors, leading to mass layoffs and unemployment. At the same time, an attack on social benefits is taking place by the CDU, FDP and AfD, which will be put into action if Friedrich-Blackrock-Merz or Alice-Goldman Sachs-Weidel are elected. The country is being handed over to financial capital, and poverty turns the people into a cheap resource for wars for influence and for exploitation in the profit machine of the western oligarchs.

Argentina, under the pseudo-libertarian milieu, is a good example of where the takeover of capital in conjunction with the Latin Americanization of Europe can lead. This milieu has made it its mission to trim the state and largely dissolve it. This is in line with right-libertarian visions that do not want to abolish the state completely, but merely transform it into an internal and external organ of power of capital that protects markets externally and combats protests and uprisings internally. Social benefits, support for the poor, minimum wages and an economic policy tailored to the population are abolished, and people are subjected to the free play of the so-called market, i.e. the rule of monopoly corporations and oligarchs who rule through local warlords, criminal gangs or formal governments. In Argentina, this course led to widespread impoverishment of the population and a collapse of the Argentine economy.  More and more Argentines can no longer even feed themselves properly, there is great discontent, and there are riots, protests and uprisings that are being fought with all the force they can.

Argentina is perhaps just a testing ground for right-libertarianism, which relies on the unlimited power of the oligarchy. Neoliberalism was already being applied experimentally in Chile, which plunged the country into absolute chaos. Poverty, violence and dictatorship have dominated the country for a long time, and recently the country has gone in this direction again. Neoliberalism later spread to Europe, where it has also caused widespread destruction.

Another alarming example is El Salvador, a small country that was long dominated by civil war and gang violence. The gangs exercised de facto power there and had the country firmly under their control. Only the tough measures taken by the government under Bukele, the self-proclaimed dictator who was recently re-elected, have been able to contain the gang violence. In the course of a year, he had 70,000 people arrested, although probably not all of them were gang members. He received a lot of criticism internationally, especially from the West, but he firmly disagreed with it. According to him, the Western recipes do not work in El Salvador. It is possible that Europe is heading towards a situation in which the Western recipes no longer work either.

Anyone who wants to get a vivid, first impression of the future of Europe can do so by simply travelling on the German railway for a while. You will see that delays and cancellations lead to overcrowded trains. Toilets are often broken, it stinks of garbage and excrement, the air conditioning or heating fails, and it is dirty. In addition, a train journey is disproportionately expensive. The railway is thus the symbol of the Latin Americanization of Germany, albeit in a mild, almost lovingly romantic form: defective infrastructure, inoperable technology, garbage and dirt, unreliability and high prices, all of this represents a model that will set a precedent and spread to other areas of public life.

 

Added to this is corruption, even at the lower levels of authorities, state and administrative arbitrariness, to the extent that there is still a state and authority, a complete privatization and shielding of public services in the hands of warlords or international corporations. The railway is even a model for private armies, albeit a harmless one so far. The DB security service has so far had no real powers and hardly any possibility of using violence. Like any other factory security service that corporations have at their disposal, it has to work with the police. But the less the authorities can do their job, the more overloaded the system, the less corporations will rely on it and the more extensive the powers of factory security will become. Added to this is the fact that corporations in other countries already employ mercenary armies to suppress resistance from the local population against mining projects or the expulsion of the native population. Many corporations also employ their own secret services, and in this way they are continually expanding their powers and will be able to mature into new, private states when the decline of the European states leaves a power vacuum.  This gives corporations and oligarchs direct access to everything that they consider useful and usable. Coercive measures such as compulsory vaccination are then no longer tied to decisions of the Bundestag, but can be enforced directly and with force.

Two things need to be achieved now: to prevent a major war with Russia that could reduce Europe to rubble and ashes, and to find a new definition of prosperity and a life worth living. Because the capitalist model has only benefited a small group of rich people. The prosperity that is always talked about only exists in ideology anyway. Large parts of society have not benefited from it. But instead of finding prosperity in suffocating consumerism, it would make sense to use the current crisis of materialism to transform society into a different one, less materialistic and focused on competition and profit. We should address the question of how to create a society that provides everyone with everything they need, and not create power hierarchies in which a few are at the top and can plunge entire societies into war and misery.

The current crisis therefore also offers the opportunity to bury a failing system and replace it with a new, more humane one. This opportunity must be seized now, before it is too late and collapsing capitalism once again destroys everything in a major war.

 

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